We are in the closing days of September with the overall weather pattern fairly calm across our pattern fairly calm in our part of the world. Changes do show by late this week into the first weekend of October, but there’s quite the model spread on what those changes mean.
A weak front drops toward eastern Kentucky late Tuesday into early Wednesday and may spit out a shower in the east.
It’s at this point we begin to see the models diverge on what happens. The EURO has been consistent in showing an upper low developing along the east coast and backing west toward our region. That would give cool and mainly dry weather.
The GFS has something else in mind, though. It’s doesn’t back the upper low to the west and instead develops a plains systems that slowly rolls in here with showers starting Friday and going through the weekend.
If the GFS is right, rain rolls in as early as Friday. If the other models win the battle, rain won’t move in here until Sunday and Monday. Stay tuned.