I continue to target the Sunday night through Tuesday timeframe for a winter storm system to impact our region. This is now likely to bring the first snowfall of the season to much of the region. While I’m still not ready to commit to a light event or something a little bit bigger, the setup from a few days out continues to look good for a snow maker around here.
Rain arrives from the southwest Sunday afternoon and evening.
As our low pressure strengthens to our south and east, cold air quickly wraps in on the backside. Western Kentucky may switch to some snow fairly early Sunday night. The switch to snow then shows up in central Kentucky Monday morning, then later in the day in the east.
A comma head of snow is likely to set up from Indiana and Ohio into Kentucky Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Throw in a fetch of moisture from Lake Michigan and you can get in on a possible overachieving setup for a few hours. Remember, the Lake Michigan waters are still pretty warm and that enhances the moisture!
The best chance for accumulating snow in western Kentucky is with the actual low pressure itself Sunday night and Monday morning. For central Kentucky, it comes from a few hours behind the surface low then with the upper low through Tuesday morning. Eastern Kentucky waits until the upper low and northwest winds kick in Monday evening through Tuesday.
As the upper low pulls away on Tuesday, snow showers quickly diminish from southwest to northeast.
I still cannot say if you location gets a lot of snow. I’m confident it’s going to snow, but I’m not ready to commit on a coating or several inches. Don’t put so much pressure on yourselves one way or the other. It’s 2020 and we are already talking about a system like this to end November.
Wind gusts of 30mph or so may also show up.